Broad-based Government Triumphs Over United Opposition In Sweeping By-Election Victories
By MKT Correspondents
Kenya’s political terrain shifted dramatically in yesterday’s poll as the broadbased government coalition led by President William Ruto and his deputy Prof. Kithure Kindiki of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) secured decisive victories across multiple constituencies, triumphing over a united opposition led by his former Deputy Rigathi Gachagua, former Attorney General JB Muturi, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, former powerful Interior CS Dr. Fred Matiang’i, and former CS Eugene Wamalwa. The by-elections, which were closely watched as a test of strength between the current and former second-in-command from the vote-rich Mt Kenya region, delivered a resounding endorsement of the government’s machinery and strategy.
In Mbeere North, Leo Wa Muthende Njeru of UDA emerged victorious against Newton Kariuki of the Democratic Party (DP), a contest that had been framed as a battle between President William Ruto’s camp and the opposition bloc led by Muturi and backed by Gachagua. The stakes were high, with Deputy President Kindiki, Embu Governor Cecile Mbarire, and immediate former MP Geoffrey Ruku—now serving as Cabinet Secretary for Labour—mobilizing government resources and political capital to secure the seat. Wamuthende’s win, with 15,802 votes against Kariuki’s 15,308, was narrow but symbolically powerful, underscoring the government’s ability to consolidate support in Mt Kenya despite opposition efforts to reclaim influence.
The Malava constituency in Kakamega County also delivered a significant victory for UDA, where David Athman Ndakwa defeated Seth Panyako of the Democratic Alliance Party of Kenya (DAP-K), a party led by Eugene Wamalwa and strongly backed by Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya. Ndakwa’s win was seen as a strategic gain for UDA in Western Kenya, a region where opposition parties have traditionally enjoyed dominance. The result demonstrated the government’s growing reach and its ability to penetrate areas once considered opposition strongholds.
In Kilifi County’s Magarini constituency, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) reaffirmed its grassroots strength as Harrison Kombe defeated Stanley Kenga of the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP). Kombe’s victory highlighted ODM’s resilience in coastal politics, where the party continues to command loyalty despite the emergence of new entrants like DCP. The contest was marked by intense campaigning, but Kombe’s established presence and ODM’s organizational structure carried the day.
Kasipul constituency in Homa Bay County also saw ODM secure another win, with Boyd Were defeating Philip Aroko. Were’s victory reinforced ODM’s dominance in Nyanza, a region that has long been its bastion. The outcome was celebrated by ODM supporters as proof that the party remains firmly entrenched in its traditional strongholds, even as new parties attempt to make inroads.
Meanwhile, in Baringo County, Vincent Kiprono Chemitei of UDA triumphed in the senatorial race, further consolidating the party’s grip in the Rift Valley. Chemitei’s win was significant not only for UDA but also for the broader government coalition, which has consistently sought to demonstrate its strength in the region that forms the bedrock of its support base. His success was seen as a reaffirmation of the government’s dominance in Rift Valley politics, where loyalty to UDA remains steadfast.
The collective results of these by-elections paint a vivid picture of Kenya’s evolving political dynamics. The government’s broadbased coalition, anchored by UDA, demonstrated its ability to mobilize resources, unify its leadership, and secure victories across diverse regions. The win in Mbeere North was particularly symbolic, as it represented a contest against opposition figures backed by influential leaders. The narrow margin underscored the intensity of the battle, but the government’s ability to edge out the opposition was celebrated as a strategic triumph.
For the opposition, the results were sobering. Despite rallying behind seasoned leaders and attempting to frame the contests as battles for regional supremacy, the united opposition failed to secure key wins outside of ODM’s traditional bases. The victories in Magarini and Kasipul reaffirmed ODM’s strength in the Coast and Nyanza, but the inability of DP and DAP-K to break through in Mt Kenya and Western Kenya highlighted the challenges facing opposition parties as they seek to expand their influence.
Observers noted that the government’s victories were not merely the result of party loyalty but also of strategic mobilization. Deputy President Kindiki, Governor Mbarire, and CS Ruku were credited with orchestrating a well-coordinated campaign in Mbeere North, leveraging government machinery to secure the seat. In Malava, UDA’s ability to counter the influence of Eugene Wamalwa and Governor Natembeya was seen as a testament to its growing organizational strength.
The by-elections also underscored the importance of grassroots engagement. Candidates like Wamuthende, Ndakwa, and Chemitei were praised for their direct connection with voters, emphasizing local issues and promising tangible development. Their victories reflected a broader trend in Kenyan politics, where voters are increasingly demanding accountability and service delivery rather than relying solely on party affiliations.
As celebrations erupted in government strongholds, the message from voters was clear: the broadbased government coalition remains firmly in control, while the opposition must recalibrate its strategies if it hopes to challenge UDA’s dominance. The wins across Mt Kenya, Western Kenya, Rift Valley, and the Coast demonstrated the government’s ability to build a national presence, while ODM’s victories reaffirmed its regional strength.
The political implications of these results are far-reaching. For President Ruto and his allies, the victories provide momentum and legitimacy, reinforcing their narrative of a government that enjoys widespread support. For opposition leaders like Muturi, Gachagua, Wamalwa, and Natembeya, the outcomes serve as a reminder of the uphill battle they face in challenging a government that has mastered the art of grassroots mobilization and coalition building.
As Kenya looks ahead to future contests, the by-elections of November 2025 will be remembered as a turning point in the ongoing battle between government and opposition forces. The broadbased government’s triumph over a united opposition underscores the unpredictability of Kenya’s democracy, where voter sentiment, grassroots engagement, and strategic mobilization can shift the balance of power in unexpected ways.
