By: Midmark Onsongo
Worth Noting:
- Let us consider Nairobi County as a case study. Nairobi, with its dense population and vibrant economic activity, is a microcosm of Kenya’s broader economy. If marijuana were legalized, the city could become a hub for the cultivation, processing, and distribution of marijuana products. The potential economic benefits are substantial.
- If Nairobi were to allocate just 1% of its arable land, approximately 10,000 hectares, for marijuana cultivation, the output could be staggering. Assuming an average yield of 1,500 kilograms per hectare, Nairobi could produce 15,000 tonnes of marijuana annually. With the current black market price of marijuana in Kenya ranging from KES 2,000 to KES 5,000 per kilogram, the legal market value could be conservatively estimated at KES 45 billion per year, assuming a mid-range price of KES 3,000 per kilogram.
Marijuana, a plant that has sparked debates, fueled controversies, and created black markets worldwide, is at the center of Kenya’s paradoxical drug policy. Every year, tonnes of marijuana are seized across the country, yet its continued illegal status only serves to perpetuate a system that profits from its very illegality. In Kenya, this contradiction is not just a legal issue; it is an economic one, deeply rooted in the vested interests of those who benefit from the current system. Kenya’s government, while ostensibly fighting the war on drugs, seems to be turning a blind eye to the reality on the ground. Large quantities of marijuana are regularly confiscated, paraded in front of cameras, and then quietly disappear from public discourse. What happens to these seizures? Why does the government not question the effectiveness of a policy that repeatedly results in the same outcome? The reality is that marijuana is widely consumed across Kenya, particularly among the youth. Despite this, only a select few—those with connections to law enforcement or government officials—are making substantial profits from its sale. The question must be asked: What difference does it make if marijuana is illegal or legal? The current state of affairs suggests that the government may be apprehensive about the implications of legalization. If marijuana were legalized, it could destabilize the lucrative black market that benefits those in power. The legalization of marijuana could lead to the establishment of manufacturing industries, creating jobs for thousands of young people who are already familiar with the product. This would not only provide a source of income for the youth but also contribute significantly to the country’s economy.
Let us consider Nairobi County as a case study. Nairobi, with its dense population and vibrant economic activity, is a microcosm of Kenya’s broader economy. If marijuana were legalized, the city could become a hub for the cultivation, processing, and distribution of marijuana products. The potential economic benefits are substantial. If Nairobi were to allocate just 1% of its arable land, approximately 10,000 hectares, for marijuana cultivation, the output could be staggering. Assuming an average yield of 1,500 kilograms per hectare, Nairobi could produce 15,000 tonnes of marijuana annually. With the current black market price of marijuana in Kenya ranging from KES 2,000 to KES 5,000 per kilogram, the legal market value could be conservatively estimated at KES 45 billion per year, assuming a mid-range price of KES 3,000 per kilogram. This figure does not even take into account the value-added products like oils, edibles, and industrial hemp products that could significantly boost revenue. The legalization and commercialization of marijuana could create tens of thousands of jobs in Nairobi alone. From farmers and factory workers to marketers and distributors, the industry could employ an estimated 50,000 to 100,000 people directly. Indirect employment, including supply chain jobs and retail positions, could double this number. A tax rate of 20% on marijuana sales could generate KES 9 billion annually in tax revenue for the government. This revenue could be reinvested into public services, infrastructure, and social programs, further stimulating the economy. The initial capital required to establish a legal marijuana industry in Nairobi could be significant, with estimates ranging from KES 20 billion to KES 50 billion for infrastructure, licensing, and regulatory frameworks. However, the return on investment would be equally substantial. Within the first five years, the industry could potentially generate a profit margin of 30% to 40%, recouping the initial investment and providing sustained economic growth.
Beyond the economic argument, there is a social dimension to the legalization of marijuana that cannot be ignored. The illegal status of marijuana has disproportionately criminalized Kenya’s youth, particularly in urban areas like Nairobi. Legalization would not only decriminalize the use of marijuana but also regulate it, ensuring that consumers are protected from adulterated products and that the youth are educated about responsible consumption. Moreover, the current illegal market is rife with corruption. It is an open secret that police officers in Nairobi and other parts of the country receive daily bribes from marijuana peddlers. These payments ensure that the trade continues unimpeded, with law enforcement turning a blind eye to the very activities they are supposed to suppress. If marijuana were legalized, this corruption could be curtailed. The trade would move out of the shadows, and the money currently lining the pockets of corrupt officials could be redirected into the formal economy.
To fully grasp the potential of a legal marijuana market, it is essential to understand what marijuana is and what it offers. Marijuana, or cannabis, contains over 100 chemical compounds known as cannabinoids. The most well-known are THC (tetrahydrocannabinol), which is responsible for the psychoactive effects, and CBD (cannabidiol), which has medicinal properties without the “high.” The products derived from marijuana are diverse and include dried flower, used for smoking or vaporizing; oils and tinctures, concentrated forms for oral or topical use; edibles, food products infused with cannabis, such as cookies, chocolates, and beverages; and industrial hemp, a variant with low THC, used in the production of textiles, paper, and biodegradable plastics. The positive effects of marijuana include pain relief, reduction of anxiety and depression, and management of chronic conditions like epilepsy and multiple sclerosis. However, there are negative effects, particularly with excessive use, such as cognitive impairment, addiction, and potential mental health issues.
The time has come for Kenya to have an honest conversation about marijuana. The benefits of legalization far outweigh the drawbacks, especially when considered in an economic context. Nairobi County alone could see billions of shillings in revenue, tens of thousands of jobs created, and a significant reduction in corruption related to the illegal trade. A systematic plan is needed to move forward with legalization. This plan should include clear regulations, a robust tax framework, and public education campaigns. It should also involve all stakeholders, from farmers to law enforcement, ensuring that the transition from an illegal to a legal market is smooth and beneficial to all. In conclusion, the continued criminalization of marijuana in Kenya is not only outdated but also economically detrimental. Legalization offers a pathway to economic growth, job creation, and social justice. The government must stop pretending not to see the reality and instead embrace the potential that a legal marijuana market holds for Kenya’s future.
This article was scripted by;
MIDMARK ONSONGO
(Sustainable economist, Geo-Politics strategizer)
Mt Kenya Times