2025 Nairobi County Leadership Study: Babu Owino Leads Governor Race Amid Public Dissatisfaction
Babu Owino
By John Kariuki
The 2025 Nairobi County Leadership Study, conducted by the Centre for African Progress (CAP) between March 6th and 9th, has revealed a deep sense of dissatisfaction among Nairobi residents regarding the county’s direction, alongside fresh insights into voter preferences ahead of the 2027 gubernatorial election.
The survey, which sampled 4,000 registered voters across the county’s 85 wards, found that an overwhelming 92% of Nairobi residents believe the county is headed in the wrong direction. Only 6% felt the county was on the right track, while 2% remained unsure.
The study highlighted three key factors that influence voting patterns in Nairobi. Voters prefer candidates who are articulate, understand their issues, and relate well with them. While many voters privately consider ethnicity in their choices, few openly admit it. A small segment of voters acknowledged receiving money, food, or clothing as a basis for their decision.
With five prominent candidates in the Nairobi gubernatorial race, the survey results indicate Babu Owino as the frontrunner with 38% support. Former MP Denis Waweru follows closely with 31%, while incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja lags at 14%. Other candidates include Tim Wanyonyi (7%) and James Gakuya (6%), while 4% of respondents remain undecided.
The poll results show Babu Owino leading with 1,520 respondents (38%), followed by Denis Waweru with 1,240 respondents (31%). Governor Sakaja has 560 respondents (14%), Tim Wanyonyi 280 respondents (7%), James Gakuya 240 respondents (6%), while 160 respondents (4%) remain undecided.
As Nairobi gears up for the 2027 elections, these findings underscore the shifting political landscape, with governance dissatisfaction and candidate appeal playing a crucial role in shaping voter choices.
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