Mudavadi tells Sifuna: Dreaming about it won't make you president

The Prime Cabinet Secretary, speaking at a UDA grassroots meeting in Butula yesterday, dismissed Sifuna’s Western Kenya campaign blitz as exercise rather than electoral strategy — but the polls and the crowds tell a different story.

By Dan Mwangi

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi yesterday mounted his sharpest public attack yet on Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna’s presidential ambitions, telling a UDA grassroots meeting in Butula, Busia County, that the senator was dreaming if he believed Western Kenya’s enthusiasm could carry him to State House.

Speaking in Kiswahili to hundreds of party supporters assembled at Butula, Mudavadi was contemptuous. “Sifuna anafikiria kuzunguka tu. Western itafanya yeye president? Huyu kijana anaota,” he said — “Sifuna thinks that just touring around is enough. Does he think Western will make him president? This young man is dreaming.”

The remark landed as a calculated put-down, but its timing told another story. Mudavadi would not have been in Butula — flanked by Busia Governor Paul Otuoma, Bungoma Governor Ken Lusaka, Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula and a column of MPs and former legislators — had the threat he was dismissing not been real and growing.

Mudavadi spelled out his broader argument with data. Citing Article 138 of the Constitution, which requires a presidential winner to secure more than half of all votes cast and at least 25% of the vote in more than half of Kenya’s 47 counties, he warned that Western Kenya alone could not deliver the presidency to anyone. He then pointed to the arithmetic of the 2022 election. “Take Ruto’s 7,176,141 votes — 50.49% — and Odinga’s 6,942,930 votes — 48.85% — then look at the current broad-based arrangement,” he said, arguing that a coalition drawing on both pools would be nearly unassailable in 2027.

He reserved particular scorn for the Linda Mwananchi movement’s county-hopping strategy. “The team that is busy moving from one county to another — today they are seen dancing in Busia, tomorrow they are in Kakamega, the following day you meet them in Trans Nzoia, thinking they have won the presidency — I want to tell them they are only practising to keep fit,” Mudavadi said.

The language was blunter than Kenyans have grown accustomed to hearing from Mudavadi, a politician whose default register is measured and institutional. That he chose Butula — the very ground Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi movement had toured only days earlier — to deliver it suggests the unease inside the Kenya Kwanza Western operation runs deeper than the public composure of its leading figures has so far admitted.

The unease is not without foundation. Trends and Insights for Africa tracked Sifuna’s national support rising from virtually zero in November 2025 to 15% in June 2026 — the steepest climb recorded among all presidential hopefuls in that period. Among ODM supporters, 44% now name Sifuna as their preferred candidate for 2027. Within the Western Kenya region specifically, he leads all other contenders in polling, including those backed by the government.

The defections have followed the polling. Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi — the Speaker of the National Assembly’s own brother — has joined Sifuna’s camp. Veteran politician Fred Gumo, whose Western Kenya credentials stretch back decades, has been unsparing about the old guard. “This is Sifuna’s time. Let us give him support. If people from other parts of the country are supporting him, why can’t we the people from Western do the same? The others who are fighting Sifuna — we gave them a chance. They are talking about 2032 yet age is catching up with them. It is like me at 80 saying I now want to be president. They should support Sifuna or keep quiet,” Gumo said.

Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale has been equally direct. “Luhyas are no longer fools and we shall not be taken for granted. We have a formula and Edwin Sifuna, you have a responsibility like no one else. Use the respect we have given you for power and development for this region,” he told a rally in Bungoma.

Trans-Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, aligned with the United Opposition, has gone further still. “Leaders of this region are jealous and enjoy seeing others being persecuted. Those who are working with Ruto, we will not allow you to join us. My work is to unite the Luhya community and if it is Sifuna, we shall be behind him,” he said.

The Luhya community is Kenya’s second-largest ethnic bloc, and Western Kenya’s projected 3.2 million votes in 2027 make it, pound for pound, one of the country’s most consequential electoral battlegrounds. KANU spokesperson Tony Gachoka framed the stakes plainly during a televised interview. “Mount Kenya remains Kenya’s largest voting bloc at approximately 26% of the national vote, followed by Western Kenya at about 18%. The opposition must also have a running mate from Western to neutralise Wetang’ula, and the only person to do that is Edwin Sifuna,” he said.

Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula have dominated Western Kenya’s politics since the death of former Vice-President Kijana Wamalwa in 2003. Both pivoted to Ruto in 2022 and have since tied their political fortunes to his re-election. Wetang’ula has been explicit about the bargain on offer. “Western Kenya has Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi, CS Wycliffe Oparanya, and me as Speaker of the National Assembly. President Ruto can pick any of us as Deputy President and groom the person for the 2032 presidential race,” he told a meeting in Sirisia, Bungoma County.

Mudavadi’s own 2032 pitch was delivered during an earlier Trans-Nzoia tour. “I was the Vice President in 2002 under the late President Daniel arap Moi, followed by my late brother Kijana Wamalwa and later Moody Awori. The time has now come for Western Kenya to prepare for the ultimate prize, which is the presidency,” he told supporters, adding: “I am not interested in the running mate slot; I aim to be the president in 2032.”

Sifuna’s answer to the 2032 argument has been delivered through rallies rather than press statements. At a Linda Mwananchi gathering in Taita Taveta, he told supporters: “The Gen Zs have told me it is time to stop calling me SG. They want to give me a new title, HE — His Excellency.”

The crowds have been the response. The rallies in Trans-Nzoia and Bungoma were described by organisers as the most significant opposition gatherings Western Kenya had seen in years. The Busia leg that followed — taking the Linda Mwananchi movement through Bumala, Murumba, Butula and Nambale — brought Sifuna into the same constituency Mudavadi chose as his counter-mobilisation base yesterday.

The juxtaposition is the point. Mudavadi told the Butula crowd that the upcoming UDA-ODM joint retreat in Naivasha — to be chaired by President William Ruto — would harmonise the broad-based coalition’s manifesto and chart a roadmap for 2027 and beyond. “Our main agenda among others is to harmonise our manifestos, which borrowed a lot from each other pre-2022 elections. We want to plan ahead and focus on the future of our nation,” he said.

It was, by design, a message of institutional weight and governing authority — the language of incumbency against the language of movement. Whether Western Kenya, after more than two decades of deferred promise, chooses to wait until 2032 or bet on the fastest-rising political figure in the country is the question that now hangs over every rally, every grassroots meeting, and every calculation being made in Nairobi.

A young man from Bungoma has rattled two of Kenya’s most seasoned political operators — and the Prime Cabinet Secretary flew to Butula to say he is only dreaming.