Is the threat by Ugandan military to invade Kenya real or hoax?

By: Joseph Mutua Ndonga

Worth Noting:

• Back to Muhoozi’s tweet, this reminds us of similar threat issued by former Uganda dictator Idi Amin Dada when he was at helm. “My troops are preparing to invade Kenya. We want to reclaim our territory which stretches all the way to Naivasha”.
• But in a swift rejoinder, Kenya’s President Jomo Kenyatta dared him to make good his threat. My troops are well prepared and ready deal with you. Just try! Amin immediately rescinded his threat. This showed he feared Kenyatta’s warning.
• Regarding the latest threats, it is important to note this. President Museveni promoted his son to the top rank of military general soon after his tweet.

The latest media reports have indicated that the Uganda People’s Defense Forces [UPDF] was planning to invade Kenya. In a post on his official tweeter handle, the military boss and President Yoweri Musevni’s son Muhoozi Kainerugaba was quoted as saying: It will take less than two weeks for my army to capture Nairobi, the Kenya’s capital city.

After the capture, he posed. Where should I live? Westlands? Riverside? I will take around my wife for a tour of the new district.

After reading this story, I asked. Were the threat real or the son of the president was joking and making a fun?

I have two reasons why the Government of Kenya would not take this matter lightly. First, this was not an ordinary person in Uganda. He is the top-ranking military officer.

Secondly, the history of his father, President Museveni, is very clear. He became the President in 1986 through the power of gun. As a leader of guerrilla war which he led for some years, he stormed and captured Kampala, the capital city of Uganda, and toppled a sitting President. After taking over, President Museveni immediately rewarded members of his rag-tag army by appointing them to serve in UPDF.

To date, the government of Uganda is ruled by the military personnel who have been using excessive force to silence Museveni’s critics.

Putting aside how Museveni rose to power, I want to say this. In East African region, President Museveni’s government has curved a niche of being notorious in terms of helping the rebels to conduct successfully coups.

In Rwanda and DRC Congo, reports indicate that Uganda had played a key role in toppling their sitting presidents, respectively. In Rwanda, the war took a worst turn after the plane carrying the President Juvenile Hybiarimana was shot down as it prepared to land at Kigali airport.

The President, who reports indicated was on his way from Arusha in Tanzania where he had attended Rwanda peace talks,   was travelling in the same plane with his Burundian counterpart. The two died on spot.

Paul Kagame, the leader of Rwanda Patriotic Front, would later win the war. He installed himself as the President and he has ruled that country since then.

Back to Muhoozi’s tweet, this reminds us of similar threat issued by former Uganda dictator Idi Amin Dada when he was at helm. “My troops are preparing to invade Kenya. We want to reclaim our territory which stretches all the way to Naivasha”.

But in a swift rejoinder, Kenya’s President Jomo Kenyatta dared him to make good his threat. My troops are well prepared and ready deal with you. Just try! Amin immediately rescinded his threat. This showed he feared Kenyatta’s warning.

Regarding the latest threats, it is important to note this. President Museveni promoted his son to the top rank of military general soon after his tweet.

Museveni is reported to have told his son. Your tweet has scared the government of Kenya and her people. If this was true, then it means Muhoozi had briefed his father about the tweet and Museveni had given him a go-ahead to post it.

Let me revisit other instances when the government of Kenya has been caught up in diplomatic rows with Uganda.

When President Mwai Kibaki was at helm of power alongside ODM leader Raila Odinga, who was the Prime Minister, a fierce war of words erupted over disputed Migingo Island in Lake Victoria.

The efforts by the Grand Coalition government to prove that the Island was on Kenya’s side did not bore the fruits. Uganda denounced the maps and other relevant documents Kenya submitted. This matter is yet to be resolved. Museveni administration has continued to call the shot in Island.

Also, we have seen Uganda trying to create toxic and unfriendly environment on matters of trade and business. They want to force the Kenya government to allow their goods to be sold in Kenya and in the same breath ban Kenyans products from being sold in Uganda.

As I conclude, this is what I want to tell the leadership of our neighboring country. The government of President William Ruto is watching you closely. Dr Ruto is not a person to joke with. So, stop provoking him?

Bear this in mind.  He is our Commander-In-Chief and he is leading formations of courageous, vicious and well trained soldiers. So, just like Jomo Kenyatta, he is ready to deal with decisively and conclusively. That is if you make good your threats.

Joseph Mutua Ndonga is a writer and political commentator based in Nairobi