A Deep Dive Into The 2024 African Union Commission Race: Raila Odinga’s Uphill Battle
Azimio La Umoja leader Raila Amolo Odinga
By: Midmark Onsongo
Worth Noting:
- The AU’s voting dynamics further complicate Odinga’s path to victory. With the 55-member states holding one vote each, Youssouf’s potential support from the Muslim-majority bloc alone could secure him nearly 20 votes.
- This includes key players like Egypt, Algeria, and Sudan, whose collective influence is substantial. In addition to this bloc, Youssouf is likely to attract votes from Francophone Africa, a region where Djibouti’s historical and linguistic ties to the Francophonie resonate strongly. West and Central African countries such as Senegal, Ivory Coast, and Cameroon may lean towards Youssouf, further bolstering his chances.
- This Francophone support is not merely a linguistic alignment but also reflects a shared diplomatic approach and mutual interests in continental stability.
As the African Union (AU) gears up for its 2024 election to choose the next Commission Chairperson, the political landscape is heating up, characterized by fierce competition and strategic alliances. Raila Odinga, the former Prime Minister of Kenya, stands as one of the most prominent candidates in the race. However, despite his formidable political legacy and the substantial financial and political backing from the Kenyan government, his journey to the AU’s top position is fraught with challenges. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, the seasoned Foreign Minister of Djibouti, emerges as a strong contender, wielding a significant advantage due to the support from Muslim-majority states within the AU. This analysis delves into the key factors that may lead to Raila Odinga’s potential defeat, despite Kenya’s aggressive campaign efforts, by examining the distribution of votes, the influence of regional alliances, and the political maneuvering that has defined Odinga’s career.
The AU election process for the Commission Chairperson is a complex and politically charged affair. With 55 member states, each holding one vote, the election is determined by a simple majority. Raila Odinga, with his deep-rooted influence in East Africa, particularly within the East African Community (EAC), is expected to secure support from countries like Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda. However, these seven nations alone cannot provide him with the majority needed to win. Meanwhile, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, Djibouti’s diplomatic heavyweight, has positioned himself as a preferred candidate among Muslim-majority states within the AU. This bloc, which includes influential countries such as Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, Sudan, and Somalia, is likely to coalesce around Youssouf, providing him with a substantial vote base. This support is not just about religious or cultural solidarity; it reflects a strategic alignment with Youssouf’s diplomatic approach and Djibouti’s role as a key geopolitical player in the Horn of Africa. Youssouf’s long tenure as Djibouti’s Foreign Minister has endowed him with the experience and credibility that many AU member states value, particularly those seeking stability and continuity in the continent’s leadership.
The AU’s voting dynamics further complicate Odinga’s path to victory. With the 55-member states holding one vote each, Youssouf’s potential support from the Muslim-majority bloc alone could secure him nearly 20 votes. This includes key players like Egypt, Algeria, and Sudan, whose collective influence is substantial. In addition to this bloc, Youssouf is likely to attract votes from Francophone Africa, a region where Djibouti’s historical and linguistic ties to the Francophonie resonate strongly. West and Central African countries such as Senegal, Ivory Coast, and Cameroon may lean towards Youssouf, further bolstering his chances. This Francophone support is not merely a linguistic alignment but also reflects a shared diplomatic approach and mutual interests in continental stability. Southern Africa, represented by the Southern African Development Community (SADC), presents another challenge for Odinga. While some SADC countries, like South Africa, might be sympathetic to Odinga’s candidacy, others may prioritize a candidate who represents less political baggage and more diplomatic continuity. This region’s votes could be pivotal, and the lack of a clear majority for Odinga in Southern Africa could further diminish his chances.
West Africa, with its diverse political landscape, represents another unpredictable factor. Nigeria, the region’s powerhouse, holds significant sway, but its support for Odinga is far from guaranteed. West African nations have their own regional dynamics and interests, which might not align with Kenya’s campaign. As such, Odinga’s ability to secure votes from this region remains uncertain, adding another layer of complexity to his campaign. While Odinga’s campaign benefits from strong financial backing from the Kenyan government, this might not be enough to overcome the strategic disadvantages he faces. Kenya’s commitment to Odinga’s campaign is substantial, with estimates suggesting that the country has invested hundreds of millions of Kenyan Shillings in this bid. This investment mirrors Kenya’s previous attempt to secure the AUC Chair for Amina Mohammed in 2017, a campaign that cost the country over half a billion shillings but ended in failure. The high financial stakes of Odinga’s campaign, coupled with Kenya’s current economic struggles, could be perceived as overcommitting to a potentially losing battle.
Given Kenya’s economic situation, characterized by high debt levels and unpopular tax increases, the lavish spending on Odinga’s campaign could spark public discontent. The Kenyan government’s investment in Odinga’s candidacy may be seen as a gamble, one that might not yield the expected returns if he fails to secure the position. The economic implications of such a high-stakes campaign, particularly in a country facing significant financial challenges, add to the pressure on Odinga’s candidacy. Moreover, the distribution of votes within the AU further underscores the challenges facing Odinga. With an estimated 20 votes likely secured by Youssouf from Muslim-majority countries, and additional support from Francophone Africa, Odinga’s path to victory becomes increasingly narrow. Even if Odinga secures the backing of the EAC, this bloc’s limited size means he will need to draw votes from other regions, which may not be forthcoming. The potential for Odinga to garner support from Southern Africa and West Africa remains uncertain, with these regions potentially swayed by factors that do not favor Odinga’s candidacy.
In this context, Odinga’s history of political maneuvering might prove to be a double-edged sword. While his ability to forge alliances and adapt to changing political landscapes has kept him at the forefront of Kenyan politics, it may also undermine his bid for the AUC Chairperson position. Within the AU, where stability and continuity are prized, Odinga’s reputation for shifting allegiances could be viewed with skepticism. Member states may prefer a candidate like Youssouf, who represents a steadier and more predictable approach to leadership. The political landscape within the AU is also shaped by regional interests and historical alliances, factors that could further disadvantage Odinga. Youssouf’s candidacy, backed by Djibouti’s strategic position in the Horn of Africa and its diplomatic ties across the continent, aligns with the interests of many AU member states. In contrast, Odinga’s campaign, while well-funded and supported by Kenya’s political elite, might struggle to overcome the broader continental dynamics that favor Youssouf.
As the election approaches, the reality of Odinga’s campaign becomes clearer. Despite his strong backing from the Kenyan government and his substantial political experience, the factors working against him are significant. The support for Youssouf from Muslim-majority states, Francophone Africa, and potentially Southern and West Africa, combined with Odinga’s polarizing political history, suggests that Youssouf has a significant advantage in this race. While the final outcome will depend on the voting behavior of AU member states, the current trajectory indicates that Odinga’s campaign faces an uphill battle. The potential for a divided vote, with key regions such as Southern Africa and West Africa remaining uncertain, further complicates Odinga’s chances of securing a majority.
This prediction, based on the current political landscape, serves as a reminder of the complexities of African continental politics. Alliances, regional interests, and individual reputations all play a critical role in determining leadership outcomes within the AU. As the 2024 election unfolds, it is likely that Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, with his diplomatic experience and broad support base, will emerge as a strong contender for the AUC Chairperson position. Despite Kenya’s best efforts and Odinga’s political legacy, the reality of the race suggests that Youssouf’s advantages may ultimately lead to Odinga’s defeat. The outcome of this election will not only shape the future of the African Union but also reflect the broader geopolitical dynamics at play within the continent, where regional interests and strategic alliances continue to influence the direction of African leadership.
This article was scripted by;
MIDMARK ONSONGO
(Sustainable Economist, Geo-Politics strategizer)
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