By Peter John
Worth Noting:
- Ruto’s administration was engaged in broadening Kenya’s diplomatic reach, particularly in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
- This move was more than just a policy shift; it subtly redirected Kenya’s political capital away from Odinga’s campaign, making it increasingly difficult for him to garner the necessary backing across the continent.
- While Raila enjoyed popularity in East Africa, his support among the influential Southern African bloc was lacking, as their alignment remained firmly with the incumbent AUC chair, Moussa Faki Mahamat.
- This solid backing proved to be a formidable obstacle that Odinga could not overcome.
Raila Odinga’s unsuccessful bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship has ignited intense debate over the factors that led to his defeat.
While his extensive political career and regional influence seemed to position him as a strong contender, his loss in the sixth round of voting revealed a series of political manoeuvers that significantly weakened his campaign.
Chief among them was the subtle yet decisive role played by President William Ruto, whose strategic diplomatic positioning and shifting priorities ultimately contributed to Odinga’s failure.
On the surface, Ruto publicly endorsed Odinga’s bid, but the realities of Kenya’s internal politics and foreign policy indicate a more nuanced picture.
Ruto’s administration was engaged in broadening Kenya’s diplomatic reach, particularly in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
This move was more than just a policy shift; it subtly redirected Kenya’s political capital away from Odinga’s campaign, making it increasingly difficult for him to garner the necessary backing across the continent.
While Raila enjoyed popularity in East Africa, his support among the influential Southern African bloc was lacking, as their alignment remained firmly with the incumbent AUC chair, Moussa Faki Mahamat.
This solid backing proved to be a formidable obstacle that Odinga could not overcome.
The internal political climate in Kenya also played a crucial role in Odinga’s downfall. Since the highly contested 2022 general elections, the rivalry between Odinga and Ruto has created a deeply divided political landscape.
The lack of a unified national front in supporting Odinga’s candidacy was evident, further compounding his challenges on the continental stage.
Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua candidly acknowledged that Kenya’s political fractures made it difficult for Odinga to present a compelling case for continental leadership.
Without a strong and undivided national endorsement, his campaign lacked the necessary momentum to challenge the entrenched regional blocs.
Beyond internal divisions and diplomatic realignments, Odinga’s campaign was hampered by limited influence in key regions such as West Africa.
While he remains a towering figure in East Africa, his ability to build a broad coalition across the continent was insufficient.
Analysts argue that his failure to cultivate strong relationships in these regions left him vulnerable to a politically intricate AUC election process, where personal influence often takes a back seat to regional alignments and strategic interests.
Furthermore, global powers such as the United States and the European Union remained notably indifferent to Odinga’s bid, depriving him of potential diplomatic leverage.
President Ruto, while not openly opposing Odinga, played a masterful political game.
His focus on strengthening economic and security ties with Southern African countries, particularly through engagements in Congo, indirectly shaped the AU voting dynamics in a way that did not favor Odinga.
By emphasizing Kenya’s broader diplomatic interests, Ruto effectively distanced his administration from actively lobbying for Odinga, leaving his campaign without the robust state machinery needed to sway key votes in the AU election.
Odinga’s defeat raises questions about Kenya’s future role in the African Union and how its leadership will navigate continental politics moving forward.
While his bid was an opportunity for Kenya to assert greater influence in AU leadership, the outcome signals a shift in Kenya’s political priorities under Ruto.
As the dust settles, the broader implications of this political maneuvering remain to be seen.
Will Kenya reposition itself for future AU leadership bids, or has Ruto strategically chosen a different path for the country’s continental ambitions? Odinga’s loss is not just his own; it marks a moment of recalibration in Kenya’s diplomatic and political trajectory within Africa.
The writer is a political writer and social analyst
