Kenya’s public wage bill set to hit KSh1.287T as county spending strains fiscal limits
New SRC data shows employment in public service surpassing one million workers, but most counties remain above the legal wage threshold
By Grace Wanja
Kenya’s public sector wage bill is projected to reach KSh1.287 trillion in the current financial year, the Salaries and Remuneration Commission revealed yesterday, as new data shows sustained growth in public employment alongside persistent fiscal pressure on county governments struggling to keep personnel costs within legal limits.
The figures are contained in the SRC’s Fourth Quarter Wage Bill Bulletin for the period April to June 2026, covering the financial year 2025/2026. They paint a picture of a public service that is growing in headcount and cost, while regulators and treasury officials work to ensure that expansion does not outpace the revenue available to sustain it.
The national wage bill stood at KSh1.247 trillion in the financial year 2024/2025 and is provisionally expected to rise to KSh1.287 trillion by the close of 2025/2026. The growth has been driven largely by expansion in the teaching, health and security sectors, alongside periodic salary adjustments tied to the cost of living. In nominal terms, the trajectory is upward. In fiscal terms, however, the picture is more nuanced.
The wage bill as a proportion of ordinary revenue — a critical measure of sustainability — stood at 41.82 per cent in 2024/2025 and is projected to fall to 40.68 per cent in the current year. The decline, modest as it is, reflects the dual effect of fiscal consolidation measures and improved revenue collection. For policymakers, it signals progress, even if the ratio remains well above what most development economists would consider comfortable for a country with Kenya’s infrastructure and social investment needs.
The county government picture is considerably more concerning. Across the first nine months of 2025/2026, personnel emoluments in county governments rose by 11 per cent, from KSh154.94 billion to KSh171.36 billion. The ratio of personnel costs to revenue declined slightly, from 46.8 per cent to 44.12 per cent, but remained far above the 35 per cent ceiling set by the Public Finance Management Act of 2012.
Only five counties managed to stay within the legal threshold during the period. Tana River recorded the lowest ratio at 27 per cent, followed by Kwale and Nakuru at 30 per cent each, Uasin Gishu at 31 per cent and Kirinyaga at 32 per cent. At the other end of the spectrum, Taita Taveta and Homa Bay each recorded ratios of 63 per cent, while Machakos reached 58 per cent — figures that suggest wage commitments in those counties are consuming resources that would otherwise fund services and development.
The national government fared better. Personnel emoluments as a proportion of total revenue remained below the 35 per cent PFM threshold throughout the first nine months of both financial years under review, rising only marginally from 27.6 per cent to 28.1 per cent. As a share of total expenditure, the ratio actually fell, from 30.5 per cent to 28 per cent, suggesting that the national government has maintained reasonable discipline in managing its wage commitments relative to overall spending.
The employment data underlying these figures tells its own story. According to the Economic Survey 2026, public sector wage employment grew by 4.6 per cent in 2025, accelerating from 3.1 per cent in 2024. Total public service employment has now surpassed one million workers, reaching 1.07 million in 2025, up from 884,700 in 2020. The Teachers Service Commission remains the largest public employer and recorded the fastest employment growth of any category, with its workforce expanding by 6.2 per cent from 410,700 employees in 2024 to 436,300 in 2025. Ministries and extra-budgetary institutions accounted for 243,500 employees, with county governments close behind at 239,000.
Beyond the headline numbers, the SRC has been active on several fronts. In June, the commission convened the first National Productivity and Performance Conference at the Kenya School of Government, bringing together public service stakeholders over three days. The conference produced seven resolutions aimed at strengthening productivity, improving service delivery, enhancing revenue mobilisation and reinforcing institutional accountability — commitments that will need to be tracked carefully if they are to move from resolution to practice.
The commission also filed its first Annual Compliance Report on the Management of the Public Service Wage Bill, fulfilling a court order and establishing what may become an important accountability mechanism for public wage governance. Additionally, SRC issued advice to 42 institutions on collective bargaining negotiations over the past year, guiding the process by which trade unions and employers arrive at agreements that must ultimately receive SRC clearance before being registered as legally binding at the Employment and Labour Relations Court.
The SRC said it remains committed to guiding negotiating parties towards equitable and sustainable outcomes, balancing the interests of workers and employers while protecting taxpayers through prudent management of public resources.
The bulletin’s findings arrive at a moment when Kenya faces competing fiscal pressures — the need to sustain a growing public workforce, deliver services to citizens and service a substantial national debt, all within the limits of revenues that have historically fallen short of targets. The data suggests the system is holding, but only just. The counties where wage ratios have reached 63 per cent are not simply statistical outliers — they are administrations where the space to deliver anything beyond salaries has effectively closed.
For Kenya to keep its public wage bill on a sustainable path, the numbers will need to keep moving in the right direction. The trend is cautiously encouraging. The margin for error is not.
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