Why Raila’s Mass Action Agenda Is Unlikely To Bear Fruits?

By: Joseph Mutua Ndonga

Worth Noting:

• Raila told his supporters to wait for that day when he will give them the direction.
• This scenerio seems to inform the reasoning of a school of thought which disagreed with the sentiments of those saying Raila is behaving like a confused man.
• Raila knows what he is doing. His intention was to get the Ruto administration off-guard.
• This is not a matter to be taken lightly. The security agencies must go back to the drawing board and come up with sound interventions to deflate the danger that Raila’s plan pose.
• Remember he has been threatening to lead his supporters to State House to ostensibly present a public petition to President Ruto.

I have been listening keenly to the narrative of Azimio La Umoja-One Kenya Coalition leader Raila Odinga and he sounded as a confused man, who lacked coherent and consistent in pursuant of his ultimate goal.

In one hand, fire salvos at President William Ruto, telling him to brace himself for countrywide mass action and marches.

This is until when Dr Ruto will heed our call to address the eight public demands.

The former Prime Minister spoke after the 14-day ultimatum lapsed before the President addressing his demands and on a day marking 5th anniversary of his truce with former President Uhuru Kenyatta.

He listed the four main demands as; reduce the high cost of living; reinstate subsidies on food, fuel and education; expedite the process of opening of presidential elections servers and halting the recruitment of the new IEBC commissioners.

It is worth to note Ruto and his deputy Rigathi Gachagua assumed power at a time when the cost of life was all-time high.

The situation started deteriorating after the handshake between Uhuru and Raila.

So, Raila should be the last person to lecture me on this. I am doing all I can to return the economy back on track, Dr Ruto always answered him back.

On the other hand, Raila has been referring President Ruto’s government as ‘illegitimate’. The ‘Political Green Revolution’, he argues, seeks to ensure the sovereign will of Kenyans prevailed.

‘I won the elections but I was rigged out’. Kenyans have a right to reclaim thier victory.

To me, these claims are farfetched, made in bad faith and did not hold any water.

Reason? As stipulated in the constitution, the elections were conducted by an Independent Electoral And Boundaries Commission (IEBC) in broad day light.

After the completion of counting and tallying of the presidential votes, Dr Ruto emerged as the winner.

Though in the run up to the polls both Ruto and Raila had assured the country that they would respect the results, the latter immediately rejected the outcome.

He invoked the rights granted to him by the constitution to file a petition at the Supreme Court.  He failed to substantiate and prove his claims of election rigging.

Consequently, the seven judges unanimously dismissed his petition and upheld the victory of President Ruto.

As we know, the mass action is set to culminate to a massive procession in Nairobi on March 20.

Raila told his supporters to wait for that day when he will give them the direction.

This scenerio seems to inform the reasoning of a school of thought which disagreed with the sentiments of those saying Raila is behaving like a confused man.

Raila knows what he is doing. His intention was to get the Ruto administration off-guard.

This is not a matter to be taken lightly. The security agencies must go back to the drawing board and come up with sound interventions to deflate the danger that Raila’s plan pose.

Remember he has been threatening to lead his supporters to State House to ostensibly present a public petition to President Ruto.

Sample this. If for instance, he manage to mobilize tens of thousands of people to assemble in Nairobi and then direct them to march to state house, your guess is as good as mine about what will happen.

The armed police officers deployed to guard the seat of power will open fire on rowdy demonstrators and this would leave a number of them lay dead.

The possibility of security forces surrendering on seeing a huge crowd and not fire a single shot is nil.

We know the history of Raila. He thrives in chaos and violence. If such heart-breaking incident take place (God forbid), it will work to his advantage.

He knows that this will force President William Ruto to drop his hardline stance in rejecting calls to share government with him.

Ruto will invite him for talks; Raila will present his demands including that of being recognized as a principal wielding the same power to that of president, and only agree to sign a ‘ceasefire’ after they are met.

This is what happened in the aftermath of 2007 and 2017 elections.

In the former, the situation was so bad. Some 1,333 Kenyans lost thier and properties worth billions of shillings were torched and destroyed.

It took the intervention of the international community to restore calm and normalcy.

Joseph Mutua Ndonga is a writer and commentator based in Nairobi