COP28 Concludes with Disappointing Outcome on Fossil Fuel Transition; Momentum Builds for Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treat
The Mt Kenya Times 
Alex Rafalowicz, Executive Director of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty speaking during COP 28 in Dubai
By Elizabeth Angira
Worth Noting:
- While the UNFCCC will continue to be a critical forum to negotiate international climate policy, this COP outcome is a clear sign that this process is not fit for the purpose of managing and financing an equitable transition away from oil, gas and coal, and that it must be urgently complemented by a new international mechanism explicitly focused on phasing out fossil fuels – a Fossil Fuel Treaty.
- “For 30 years this process has failed to face up to the core driver of the climate crisis, today that changes, but only because the people on the front lines held the line for the rest of humanity.
After a long battle over the final text, climate negotiations ended at COP28, with a weak outcome on transitioning away from fossil fuels – the main cause of the climate crisis and the biggest issue of this COP.
Due to the barriers to negotiating and financing a fossil fuel phase out within the UNFCCC, a strong movement has gained momentum, with 12 nations calling for the negotiation of a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, 4 of them endorsing the proposal here in Dubai – Palau, Colombia, Samoa and Nauru.
Alex Rafalowicz, Executive Director of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, said:
“Having the words ‘fossil fuels’ in the text is an important political signal, but it’s a far cry from the ‘historic’ outcome we were all calling for – it is the weakest we could have gotten, it has all the intentionally vague words planted to deceive us, and it is still very reliant on all the unproven technologies we must avoid.
Those most responsible for the climate crisis did not bring finance, technology, or actions to start phasing out fossil fuels, instead they brought hollow hypocrisy that poisoned the talks just as they are poisoning life on Earth.
While the UNFCCC will continue to be a critical forum to negotiate international climate policy, this COP outcome is a clear sign that this process is not fit for the purpose of managing and financing an equitable transition away from oil, gas and coal, and that it must be urgently complemented by a new international mechanism explicitly focused on phasing out fossil fuels – a Fossil Fuel Treaty.
“For 30 years this process has failed to face up to the core driver of the climate crisis, today that changes, but only because the people on the front lines held the line for the rest of humanity.
There was a significant number of governments pushing for science-based fossil fuel phase out and for a true just transition package with finance and equity at the core.
The fact that these countries could not breakthrough because of the consensus based process demonstrates the inability of the UNFCCC to really deal with the urgency and the source of this crisis. That is why we need a complementary, non-consensus based process like a Fossil Fuel Treaty, that allows those countries to come together to negotiate and to actually accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels signaled in this agreement,” highlighted Alex.
A growing bloc formed by Antigua & Barbuda, Colombia, Fiji, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu is spearheading an effort to secure a mandate to negotiate a new international mechanism to manage a phase out of fossil fuels, and finance a just and equitable global transition away from the deadly grip of oil, gas and coal.
Auimatagi Joe Moeono-Kolio, Chief Advisor (Pacific) of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative said “After 30 years of climate talks, the COP28 outcome finally mentioned fossil fuels but fell short of setting a clear plan to phase them out. The bar is so low now that we are expected to applaud incremental gains from this low-altitude flying, low-ambition COP Presidency.
Small Island States from the Pacific and across the world pushed relentlessly for a science-based fossil fuel phase-out and a genuine just transition package with finance and equity at its core.
The fact that they could not break through the consensus-based framework of the UNFCCC emphasises the need for a new process that can complement this process, a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. It will allow nations committed to real climate action to negotiate and implement the transition away from fossil fuels in a way that is not just far, but also fair.”
Along with the governments, the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty proposal is also supported by the World Health Organization, the European Parliament, 101 Nobel Laureates, 600+ parliamentarians in 83 countries, 2,100 civil society organisations, 3,000 scientists and academics and over 90 cities and subnational governments, including most recently the State of California, the fifth largest economy in the world, and 9 Peruvian Indigenous Nations.
Mitzi Jonelle Tan from Fridays for Future MAPA said “We refuse to give up. There is hope, and with the COP process lagging behind on fossil fuels, we turn to the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty as a complement to the Paris Agreement to ensure and fast track a global just transition that leaves no one behind”
Statements from government officials at COP28 calling for a Fossil Fuel Treaty to manage a just transition away from oil, gas and coal:
Gustavo Petro, President of Colombia, in his speech at the High-Level Party Event organized by the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, when announcing Colombia’s endorsement at the beginning of COP28: “It is a paradox that, at this table, together with populations that could disappear, there is a country like us, which also depends on oil, and which is committed to endorsing a treaty that implies zero new exploration projects in the world. My own society would say ‘how would the President produce such economic suicide?’, given that we depend on oil and coal.
Ralph Regenvanu, Minister of Climate Change, Energy, Environment, Meteorology, Geohazards and Disaster Management of Vanuatu: “We, the Small Island States, are showing the world that we punch above our weight when it comes to international climate diplomacy
Gaston Brown, Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda: “As Prime Minister of one of the most vulnerable small island states globally, the message is clear. We are at a crossroad in history and facing a monumental choice that will define the trajectory of our planet – the call for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Surangel Whipps Jr., President of Palau, said in his high-level statement at COP28: “Our ocean feeds us, protects us, and defines us. We must protect it in return. We are witnessing the consequences of ignoring the planet’s limits—floods, droughts, heat, famine, death. The solution to the climate crisis requires everyone’s participation.
Toeolesulusulu Cedric Schuster, Samoa’s Minister of Natural Resources and Environment: “For myself, and also for Samoa, we see this as a very important initiative, and we do want to join. This is important. If we’re going to talk about a transition and a fossil fuel phase out this is a mechanism we need. We will join this initiative and we want to continue to advocate in ways that provide the mechanism so that we can continue to have space that will enable us to really put words into actions.”
Reagan Moses, Secretary for Climate Change and National Resilience of Nauru, In his National Statement at the High Level Plenary of COP28: “We are ready to do our part in making the Pacific a fossil fuel-free zone. In this regard, Nauru would like to use this opportunity to join others in calling for a treaty to phase out fossil fuel production.” Moses also highlighted the importance of financing a Just Transition in the most vulnerable countries
Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General at a High-Level Party Event at COP28: “The devastating effects of air pollution resulting from these emissions claim the lives of over seven million people each year. In full support of your call for a fossil fuel treaty, the World Health Organization stands united with you.
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