By Mitchelle Atieno
ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna has demanded that any decision on the party’s future, including whether to cooperate with President William Ruto ahead of the 2027 elections, must be subjected to a National Delegated Council vote, as factional wars within the Orange Democratic Movement intensify. Speaking during the burial of former Cabinet Minister Cyrus Jirongo in Lumakanda, Kakamega County, Sifuna accused certain party leaders of attempting to “sell ODM” to Ruto without consultation. He declared that ODM is a national party representing all tribes and regions, not a bargaining chip for short-term political gain. His remarks came amid accusations from ODM Chair Gladys Wanga and Suna East MP Junet Mohamed that retired President Uhuru Kenyatta was using proxies to destabilize the party, allegations Sifuna firmly rejected.
The divisions within ODM have sharpened since the death of its founding leader Raila Odinga in October, leaving a vacuum that has exposed deep rifts over succession and strategy. On one side, the Sifuna-led faction, backed by MPs Caleb Amisi, Babu Owino, and Governor James Orengo, insists ODM must remain independent and contest 2027 on its own terms. On the other, a faction led by Senator Oburu Oginga and Governor Gladys Wanga is exploring a pre-election pact with Ruto’s UDA, arguing that strategic cooperation could secure ODM’s relevance in a shifting political landscape. Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir has openly supported early coalition talks, warning that ODM risks being locked out of government if it waits too long.
The clash reflects broader tensions that have plagued ODM in recent months. In December, Sifuna publicly apologized to Uhuru Kenyatta after some ODM leaders insulted him, acknowledging his past support for Raila Odinga during critical political moments. Yet the apology itself sparked backlash from party members who viewed it as evidence of Sifuna’s alleged closeness to Kenyatta, further fueling suspicion within the ranks. Earlier, Sifuna vowed to defend Raila’s legacy and resist any attempt to align ODM with Ruto, promising a duel in 2027 against those pushing for cooperation.
ODM’s internal wars have also played out in public statements and strategy reviews. In July, the party announced a new strategy after reviewing its broad-based deal with Ruto, with Sifuna initially supporting Raila’s position to work with Kenya Kwanza for stability. But following Raila’s death, the consensus fractured, leaving ODM torn between continuity and independence. Analysts note that Raila’s absence has removed the unifying figure who could balance competing interests, exposing fault lines that had long been suppressed.
The stakes are high. ODM, once the dominant opposition force, now faces existential questions about its identity and future. The Sifuna faction argues that aligning with Ruto would betray Raila’s legacy and reduce ODM to a junior partner, while the pro-cooperation faction insists that pragmatism demands engagement with the ruling party. The rhetoric has grown increasingly hostile, with Junet Mohamed warning of a “war” in January to expel rebels, and Sifuna daring his opponents to call an NDC to remove him if they wish.
Observers see parallels with past ODM crises, including the fallout from the 2007 coalition government and the 2018 handshake with Uhuru Kenyatta. Each moment tested ODM’s cohesion, but Raila’s leadership provided a stabilizing force. Without him, the party risks splintering into irreconcilable camps. The current battle is not just about 2027 but about whether ODM can survive as a unified entity in the post-Raila era.
The implications extend beyond ODM. Kenya’s broader political landscape is being reshaped by Ruto’s consolidation of power and the repositioning of opposition parties. A weakened ODM could leave the field open for new movements or coalitions, altering the balance of power ahead of 2027. For Ruto, ODM’s divisions present an opportunity to co-opt rivals and neutralize opposition. For Kenyatta, the accusations of meddling highlight his continued relevance and the suspicion that retired leaders still wield influence behind the scenes.
ODM’s wars have also been fueled by regional dynamics. Leaders from Nyanza, traditionally ODM’s stronghold, have expressed frustration at what they see as betrayal by colleagues engaging Ruto. Meanwhile, coastal leaders argue that cooperation with UDA could secure development projects and political leverage. These regional tensions mirror the national divide, with ODM struggling to reconcile local interests with national strategy.
The party’s youth wing has also weighed in, with younger leaders like Babu Owino insisting that ODM must reinvent itself to appeal to a new generation of voters. They argue that aligning with Ruto would alienate young supporters who view ODM as the voice of resistance. Yet others contend that youth are more pragmatic and may welcome coalition politics if it delivers tangible benefits.
Civil society groups have expressed concern that ODM’s internal wars could weaken democratic competition. They warn that if opposition parties are co-opted or fractured, Kenya risks sliding into one-party dominance, undermining accountability and governance. The call for issue-based politics, echoed by Kenyatta at Jirongo’s burial, resonates with these concerns.
The coming months will be decisive. ODM must hold its council meetings to determine its path, but the outcome is uncertain. If the pro-cooperation faction prevails, ODM could enter a pact with UDA, reshaping Kenya’s political map. If Sifuna’s faction holds firm, ODM may attempt to field its own presidential candidate, though questions remain about who could step into Raila’s shoes.
The uncertainty has already sparked speculation about potential successors. Names like James Orengo, Hassan Joho, and Wycliffe Oparanya have been floated, but none command Raila’s national stature. This leadership vacuum complicates ODM’s strategy, leaving it vulnerable to external influence and internal discord.
Analysts argue that ODM’s survival depends on its ability to reconcile factions and articulate a clear vision for 2027. Without unity, the party risks irrelevance. Yet unity may require compromise, and compromise may mean redefining ODM’s identity in ways that challenge its legacy.
As ODM grapples with these dilemmas, the broader question looms: what does opposition mean in Kenya’s evolving democracy? Is it resistance at all costs, or is it strategic engagement to secure influence? ODM’s answer will shape not only its future but the future of Kenya’s political competition.
In the end, ODM’s wars are not just about 2027—they are about survival, legacy, and whether Kenya’s oldest opposition party can remain a force when its founder is gone.
Dennis Dibondo