By MKT Reporter
A new Nairobi gubernatorial preference survey shows Embakasi North MP James Gakuya emerging as the early front-runner in the race for City Hall, ahead of Babu Owino and incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja. The poll, conducted by Mizani Africa between late November and early this month paints a competitive and fast-shifting political landscape as the capital gears up for the next General Election.
According to the findings, Gakuya leads with 33.3 percent, followed by Embakasi East MP Babu Owino at 21.7 percent, while Governor Sakaja comes in third with 19.9 percent.
Businesswoman Agnes Kagure follows at 14.1 percent, with former PS Irungu Nyakera at 1.8 percent and former Dagoretti South MP Dennis Waweru at 1.1 percent.
The proportion of undecided voters stands at 8.1 percent, indicating a sizeable bloc still up for grabs as campaigns intensify.
Who Was Interviewed
The survey captured the views of Nairobi’s diverse electorate, maintaining an almost equal gender balance; 51 percent male and 49 percent female.
In terms of age, the largest share of respondents fell between 25 and 35 years, representing 35 percent of the sample. Youth aged 18 to 24 accounted for a significant proportion, while voters aged 46 to 55 made up 12 percent, and those above 55 constituted 3 percent.
Education levels mirrored the city’s broad socio-economic profile: 46 percent of respondents had completed secondary school, 25 percent had college-level education, 15 percent held university degrees, while a smaller fraction reported primary completion, postgraduate qualifications or no formal education.
How the Study Was Conducted
The survey targeted adults aged 18 and above across all 17 constituencies of Nairobi County, which collectively hold 2,415,310 registered voters, according to IEBC’s 2022 register.
Mizani Africa used a quantitative research approach, selecting a sample of 2,000 respondents through Simple Random Sampling from active mobile numbers.
With a 90 percent response rate, a total of 1,800 interviews were successfully completed.
Data collection was carried out through Mobile Telephone Interviews (MTI) conducted daily between 9:00 AM and 5:30 PM from 24th November to 1st December 2025.
The survey has a margin of error of ±2.2 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. Mizani Africa implemented multiple quality assurance measures, including interviewer supervision, call-back verification, and automated checks to ensure accuracy and consistency. Respondent confidentiality was strictly upheld.
Interpreting the Numbers
After fieldwork, the data underwent detailed cleaning, validation, and minor weighting to reflect the demographic and constituency distribution of Nairobi.
The results offer an early snapshot of voter preferences but also highlight the competitive nature of the race, with three leading candidates separated by narrow margins and a meaningful undecided segment that could sway the final outcome.
As Nairobi’s political season heats up, the poll suggests that voter sentiment is fluid and the city’s fight for the governorship is far from settled.
John Kariuki