By: Midmark Onsongo
Worth Noting:
- The much-criticized Finance Bill of 2023 introduced taxes so convoluted they might as well be riddles. “If a man taxes the air, what will the birds breathe?” Yet, in its desperation to raise revenue, the government is doing just that—taxing everything from fuel to digital content to even the rain in the clouds, if it could.
- The most controversial of these taxes is the Housing Levy, designed to fund affordable housing for Kenyans. “The man who promises you a house without walls is probably living in a tent,” and indeed, Kenyans are wondering where these houses are, or whether they even exist beyond the fancy brochures.
In a land where the hyena sings, the rabbit weeps. Such is the state of Kenya’s economy, a grand illusion built on shaky foundations, promising prosperity but delivering only despair. For the past decade, Kenya has danced on the edge of a financial abyss, with every step bringing it closer to the precipice. But now, the house of cards seems ready to collapse. “When the river swells, even the crocodile knows it’s time to move,” but our leaders, it seems, are swimming against the tide, unaware—or unwilling to admit—that the current is too strong.
At the heart of the problem is the national debt, which, like an insatiable monster, has grown to a jaw-dropping KSh 10.2 trillion. If you laid out Kenya’s debt end to end, it would circle the earth several times over. But here’s the riddle: how does a country, once touted as the “economic powerhouse of East Africa,” find itself borrowing to pay its debt? It’s like a tongue twister that twists itself into knots: “Kenya keeps borrowing more to pay what it borrowed before, but borrowing more leaves us poorer than before.”
The government continues to assure the people that everything is under control. “The man who hides a festering wound under a bandage is only fooling himself,” and so it is with Kenya’s leaders, who speak of economic growth and fiscal responsibility while quietly piling on loans like a child stacking wooden blocks—until the whole thing topples. The country’s GDP may have grown, but so too has the wealth gap, and while the rich feast, the poor scavenge for scraps.
At the center of this economic whirlpool is the skyrocketing cost of living. Kenyans wake up each day to find that the prices of basic goods—maize flour, sugar, cooking oil, fuel—have risen yet again. “When a banana seller raises his price, the monkey cannot afford to eat,” and indeed, many Kenyans are finding it increasingly difficult to afford even the most basic necessities. A kilogram of sugar now costs upwards of KSh 200, fuel prices have surged beyond KSh 200 per liter, and electricity bills are a nightmare best left unopened. It seems the only thing rising faster than the cost of living is the government’s appetite for new taxes.
The much-criticized Finance Bill of 2023 introduced taxes so convoluted they might as well be riddles. “If a man taxes the air, what will the birds breathe?” Yet, in its desperation to raise revenue, the government is doing just that—taxing everything from fuel to digital content to even the rain in the clouds, if it could. The most controversial of these taxes is the Housing Levy, designed to fund affordable housing for Kenyans. “The man who promises you a house without walls is probably living in a tent,” and indeed, Kenyans are wondering where these houses are, or whether they even exist beyond the fancy brochures.
While the government continues to rake in taxes, public service delivery remains abysmal. Hospitals are understaffed and under-equipped, public schools are bursting at the seams, and infrastructure projects are stalled or riddled with corruption. “A road half-built is worse than no road at all,” and yet, Kenya is littered with such roads—metaphorical and literal—that lead nowhere. The much-vaunted Big Four Agenda—which was supposed to revolutionize housing, healthcare, manufacturing, and food security—has become a shadow of its former self, a dream deferred in the face of mounting economic challenges.
Speaking of food security, Kenya’s agricultural sector is in dire straits. Once the backbone of the economy, agriculture has been battered by drought, poor planning, and, yes, corruption. Farmers are left high and dry as the government’s promises to subsidize fertilizers and seeds remain unmet. “A farmer who plants hope in barren soil will harvest nothing but despair,” and Kenyan farmers have been planting in such soil for far too long. Instead of boosting local production, the government has resorted to importing food from abroad, lining the pockets of foreign exporters while leaving Kenyan farmers in the cold. What happened to supporting the hustler nation?
Unemployment remains a ticking time bomb. While the government claims to be creating jobs, the youth—Kenya’s largest demographic—remain unemployed or underemployed. Universities churn out thousands of graduates every year, but most end up chasing jobs that don’t exist. “A man who casts his net in an empty pond will catch nothing but frustration,” and the youth of Kenya have been casting their nets for far too long. The government’s promises to create millions of jobs have so far been empty rhetoric, much like the elusive “bottom-up” economic model that was meant to uplift the downtrodden.
Corruption, as always, is the silent killer of Kenya’s economy. Billions of shillings vanish into the black hole of graft every year, with no accountability or consequences. “A man who steals from the village storehouse should not be surprised when the village starves,” and yet those who have looted public coffers continue to dine like kings. The sugar scandal, the KEMSA COVID-19 heist, and various other corruption sagas have only deepened the public’s mistrust in the government’s ability to manage the economy.
But the economic picture isn’t all doom and gloom. Kenya has potential—great potential—but potential alone won’t put food on the table. The country’s technology sector, for example, is one of the most vibrant in Africa, with innovations such as mobile money (MPesa) revolutionizing financial inclusion. The agricultural sector, despite its challenges, remains a cornerstone of the economy, and with proper investment and planning, it could feed the nation and even export food to neighboring countries. Tourism, too, has long been a major revenue earner for Kenya, with its breathtaking landscapes, wildlife, and rich cultural heritage attracting millions of visitors every year.
But here’s the catch: “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush,” and Kenya must start investing in the assets it already has rather than chasing after grandiose schemes that benefit only the elite. The government needs to focus on fixing the basics—ensuring food security, creating jobs, improving infrastructure, and most importantly, curbing corruption. For without these, the economy will continue to teeter on the edge, like a house built on sand, waiting for the next storm to sweep it away.
To rescue the economy, we must also rethink the debt burden. Kenya is at risk of defaulting on its loans, which would be catastrophic for the country’s creditworthiness. “The man who borrows to buy food today must still repay tomorrow,” and the chickens are coming home to roost. The government must renegotiate its loans, cut down on unnecessary spending—particularly on foreign travel and luxuries—and redirect funds toward critical sectors like health, education, and agriculture.
Kenya’s economy is not beyond saving, but time is running out. “When the lion roars, the gazelle does not wait to hear the second roar,” and we, as a nation, cannot afford to wait any longer. The people are crying for relief from the crushing weight of debt, unemployment, and a cost of living crisis that has left many destitute. We need action, not just words. We need leaders who will prioritize the welfare of the people over their own pockets. We need a government that is accountable, transparent, and committed to restoring Kenya’s economic glory.
Kenya’s economy is like a balancing act on a high wire, teetering dangerously close to collapse. If we do not act now, if we do not demand better governance and fiscal responsibility, we risk plunging into an economic abyss from which it will be difficult to recover. “A stitch in time saves nine,” and it’s time for Kenya to start stitching before the hole becomes too big to repair. The future of Kenya’s economy depends on the choices we make today.
MIDMARK ONSONGO
(Sustainable economist, Geopolitics strategizer)
