By David Kimani
The death of Raila Amolo Odinga in late 2025 marked the end of an era in Kenyan politics. For nearly four decades, Raila had been the gravitational center of the opposition, the voice of defiance, and the architect of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). His passing left a vacuum that has now erupted into a fierce succession battle, pitting family members, youthful reformists, and seasoned veterans against one another in a struggle that could redefine the party’s future.
In Nairobi’s Kibra constituency, Raila’s children Winnie Odinga and Raila Odinga Jr made their most forceful political intervention yet. Addressing a rally at Kamukunji grounds, Winnie declared that ODM was not for sale, nor could it be hijacked by opportunists seeking to exploit the mourning period. Her words carried the weight of her father’s legacy, but also the urgency of a new generation determined to protect the party’s identity. “You cannot copy and paste Baba,” she said, invoking Raila’s towering presence. Her brother echoed the sentiment, insisting that ODM must remain a platform for free expression rather than a cage for sycophancy. Their remarks were not casual. They openly aligned themselves with the youthful faction led by Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, signaling a generational shift. By invoking their mother Ida Odinga’s blessings, the siblings sought to anchor their legitimacy within the family’s broader political heritage.
Even as the Odinga siblings rallied supporters in Nairobi, ODM’s internal fractures were laid bare in Kakamega County. Two rival factions held parallel meetings—one in Butere led by Governor Fernandes Barasa, another in Kakamega town linked to CS Wycliffe Oparanya. Dr. Oburu Odinga, Raila’s elder brother and interim party leader, was forced to shuttle between the gatherings, underscoring the depth of division. Governor Barasa’s allies insisted he should join ODM’s technical negotiation team, while Oparanya’s camp dismissed the Butere meeting as a mere courtesy call. ODM Deputy Party Leader Simba Arati accused Oparanya of fueling discord instead of strengthening unity. The spectacle of dueling rallies revealed a party struggling to reconcile its grassroots with its elite leadership.
At the heart of ODM’s turmoil lies the question of Raila’s legacy. Lawyer Ahmednassir Abdullahi bluntly declared ODM “politically dead” without Raila, arguing that the party cannot be cloned. Yet others, including Dr. Oburu, insist that ODM can survive if it negotiates hard for power-sharing and maintains its structures. The siblings’ intervention challenges this narrative. By backing youthful leaders, Winnie and Raila Jr are attempting to reframe ODM as a party of renewal rather than decline. Their rhetoric resonates with younger supporters who see ODM not as a relic of Raila’s charisma but as a platform for generational change.
The battle lines are clear. On one side stand the veterans—Oburu Odinga, Gladys Wanga, Simba Arati—who emphasize negotiation, zoning of seats, and cautious engagement with President Ruto’s UDA. On the other side are the youthful reformists—Sifuna, Babu Owino, and now Winnie—who reject compromise and demand ideological purity. This generational clash is not merely about personalities. It reflects deeper tensions over strategy. Should ODM pursue power-sharing deals to remain relevant, or should it double down on opposition politics to preserve its identity? The veterans argue pragmatism; the youth argue principle.
With Kenya’s next general election looming in 2027, ODM’s internal battles carry high stakes. The party must decide whether to contest Ruto’s dominance head-on or negotiate for inclusion in government. Parallel rallies and public spats risk weakening ODM’s bargaining power, leaving it vulnerable to fragmentation. International observers have noted the securitization of Uganda’s elections as a cautionary tale. ODM’s divisions could similarly erode democratic opposition in Kenya if not resolved. The East African Community’s emphasis on strong party structures underscores the urgency of unity.
ODM’s future now hinges on whether it can reconcile its factions. Winnie Odinga’s vow to take the matter to the National Delegates Conference suggests a looming showdown. If the NDC becomes a battleground between veterans and youth, the outcome could determine whether ODM survives as a coherent force or splinters into irrelevance. The symbolism of Raila’s children stepping into the fray cannot be overstated. Their presence evokes continuity of bloodline, but their rhetoric signals rupture. They are not merely inheriting their father’s mantle; they are reshaping it.
The Orange Democratic Movement stands at a perilous juncture. Raila Odinga’s death has unleashed forces of renewal and rivalry, exposing fault lines that were long suppressed by his towering presence. The Odinga siblings’ entry into the succession row has electrified youthful supporters but unsettled veterans. Parallel rallies in Kakamega dramatize the party’s fragmentation. Whether ODM emerges stronger or weaker will depend on its ability to balance legacy with innovation, pragmatism with principle, and unity with diversity. For now, the fire in ODM’s paradise burns brightly, consuming old certainties and illuminating new possibilities.
The story of ODM after Raila is not just about succession; it is about the survival of a political tradition that has shaped Kenya’s democratic journey. Raila’s legacy was built on defiance, sacrifice, and resilience. His children, allies, and rivals now wrestle with how to carry that torch forward. Some see compromise as betrayal, others see it as necessity. The debates raging in Kibra and Kakamega are not isolated—they are the echoes of a larger struggle over Kenya’s political soul.
ODM’s battles are also a mirror of Kenya’s generational politics. The youth, restless and impatient, demand space and recognition. The veterans, cautious and experienced, warn against reckless ambition. The clash is inevitable, but it need not be destructive. If ODM can harness both energy and wisdom, it may yet emerge as a stronger, more inclusive party. If it fails, it risks becoming a relic of Raila’s charisma, remembered more for its past than its future.
The coming months will test ODM’s resilience. Consultative forums, delegate conferences, and grassroots mobilization will determine whether the party can heal or fracture. Winnie Odinga’s promise to tour the country and collect views from supporters is a bold step toward renewal. But renewal requires more than rhetoric; it requires structures, discipline, and vision. Raila’s absence has left ODM vulnerable, but it has also created an opportunity for reinvention.
Kenya’s political landscape is watching closely. ODM has long been the heartbeat of opposition politics. Its fate will shape not only the 2027 elections but also the broader trajectory of democracy in the country. The fire in ODM’s paradise is both a crisis and a chance. Out of the ashes of Raila’s passing, a new chapter may yet be written.
Dennis Dibondo