From ATACMS to North Korean Troops: How the Ukraine War Threatens Global Security
The Mt Kenya Times 
North Korean Troops
By: Silas Mwaudasheni Nande
Worth Noting:
- Allowing Ukraine to use Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to target deep inside Russian territory could provoke a stronger response from Russia, potentially escalating the conflict. This risks drawing NATO or other actors such South Korea and Taiwan into a broader war.
- North Korea deploying weapons and personnel to Russia introduces another unpredictable player into the conflict, intensifying fears of an expanding alliance between anti-Western states. This increases instability in Europe and Asia.
- While North Korea’s lack of combat experience is a liability, it is also a reminder of the unpredictable nature of the conflict. For NATO and Ukraine, this is an opportunity to exploit weaknesses while remaining vigilant against surprises. By highlighting North Korea’s involvement, Ukraine can strengthen its case for continued global support, while NATO can underscore the broader threat posed by authoritarian alliances.
Global security faces unprecedented threats as advanced weaponry becomes a central feature of modern conflicts. The ongoing Ukraine-Russia war has not only reshaped geopolitical alliances but also raised ethical and strategic concerns over the use of certain weapons. Advanced missile systems like the American-made ATACMS, drones, and long-range artillery have changed the dynamics of the battlefield, while the potential use of nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons poses catastrophic risks to humanity.
Weapons such as tactical nuclear arms, cluster munitions, and chemical agents are particularly concerning due to their indiscriminate impact and long-lasting effects. In the Ukraine-Russia war, deploying such arms would not only violate international law but also risk escalating the conflict into a global crisis. To preserve global security, it is essential for world powers and stakeholders to draw clear lines on what weapons can and cannot be used, emphasizing the importance of restraint in this volatile conflict.
The escalation in Ukraine, involving advanced weaponry and increasing alliances, carries significant implications for global security, U.S. politics, and geopolitical alignments.
Global Security Risks
Escalation to a Larger Conflic
Allowing Ukraine to use Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to target deep inside Russian territory could provoke a stronger response from Russia, potentially escalating the conflict. This risks drawing NATO or other actors such South Korea and Taiwan into a broader war.
North Korea’s Role
North Korea deploying weapons and personnel to Russia introduces another unpredictable player into the conflict, intensifying fears of an expanding alliance between anti-Western states. This increases instability in Europe and Asia.
North Korea’s military participation in the Ukraine conflict raises important questions about its capacity and impact. While their involvement could escalate tensions, it also presents vulnerabilities that NATO and Ukraine might exploit.
Lack of Combat Experience
North Korea’s military has not engaged in significant combat since the Korean War in the 1950s, meaning:
Outdated Tactics: Their battlefield strategies may be antiquated, developed for conflicts vastly different from modern warfare. This lack of adaptation could be a major weakness.
Logistical Challenges: North Korea’s military is built for defense rather than expeditionary missions. Operating in a foreign theater like Ukraine could strain its already limited resources and logistics.
Morale and Training: Prolonged combat often reveals cracks in underprepared forces. North Korean troops may struggle to adapt to the realities of modern, high-intensity warfare against a battle-hardened Ukrainian military supported by NATO intelligence and weapons.
Strategic Opportunities for NATO and Ukraine
North Korea’s inexperience can provide several advantagesnfor NATO and Ukraine:
Exposing Weaknesses: Ukrainian forces, experienced in modern warfare, can exploit North Korean errors in tactics, positioning, and coordination.
Global Messaging: North Korea’s involvement bolsters Ukraine’s narrative that it is defending against not just Russia but an authoritarian bloc. This could galvanize more international support for Ukraine.
Straining Russia: The reliance on North Korean troops and weapons underscores Russia’s growing desperation. NATO can highlight this to emphasize Russia’s diminishing power and legitimacy on the global stage.
The Wildcard Factor: North Korea’s Unpredictability
Despite these shortcomings, North Korea’s involvement is not without risks:
Unorthodox Tactics: North Korea is known for its unconventional and often brutal strategies. Their troops may bring an element of unpredictability that complicates Ukrainian defenses.
Political Calculations: The willingness of North Korea to escalate could embolden other states, such as Iran or Belarus, to increase their support for Russia.
Potential for Escalation: North Korea’s presence could provoke stronger responses from neighboring countries like South Korea or Japan, creating regional tensions that distract from NATO’s focus on Ukraine.
While North Korea’s lack of combat experience is a liability, it is also a reminder of the unpredictable nature of the conflict. For NATO and Ukraine, this is an opportunity to exploit weaknesses while remaining vigilant against surprises. By highlighting North Korea’s involvement, Ukraine can strengthen its case for continued global support, while NATO can underscore the broader threat posed by authoritarian alliances. However, underestimating North Korea’s willingness to defy norms could lead to miscalculations, making caution essential.
Global Tensions
The involvement of countries like North Korea and Iran (allegedly supplying drones to Russia) complicates efforts to resolve the conflict diplomatically, pushing the world closer to proxy wars or direct confrontations.
Dangers to the Trump Administration
While this is happening during the Biden Administration, the conflict has implications for Trump, especially as he won for re-election and will resume presidential duties soon.
Criticism of Biden’s Foreign Policy: Trump might attempt to leverage the situation to criticize Biden’s decisions, more especially allowing Ukraine to use ATACMS, portraying them as reckless or escalatory. However, this could backfire if the public views the situation as a justified defense of Ukraine.
Trump’s Russia Stance: Trump’s previous leniency toward Russia could be seen as controversial, especially if Russia’s actions become increasingly aggressive and destructive. This might alienate some voters who voted for Trump and also who favor a tougher stance on Russia.
Potential Fallout from Alliances: If the U.S. is drawn further into the war, any missteps (e.g., increased casualties or economic strain) could be used against Biden. However, Trump’s past admiration for Putin might raise questions about his ability to address such crises effectively.
Can Trump Stop Russia Without Using Force?
Trump has often positioned himself as a dealmaker, claiming he could negotiate peace in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. His ability to stop Russia without force would depend on several factors:
Diplomatic Leverage: Trump has previously emphasized personal relationships with leaders like Vladimir Putin. As he is re-elected, he might leverage these ties to negotiate a ceasefire or peace agreement. However, such negotiations would need to balance Ukraine’s sovereignty with Russia’s territorial ambitions, a delicate and contentious process.
Economic Pressure: Trump could focus on imposing or maintaining sanctions against Russia, targeting its economy and key industries while simultaneously using incentives like lifting certain sanctions in exchange for concessions.
Coalition-Building: Trump might aim to rally nations, including China or other influential powers, to pressure Russia diplomatically. However, his “America First” approach may limit multilateral support.
Risk of Appeasement: Critics argue that Trump’s approach might prioritize ending the conflict over upholding Ukraine’s territorial integrity, potentially leading to concessions that embolden Russia.
Can Trump Nuke Russia?
While technically, the U.S. president has the authority to order the use of nuclear weapons, using them against Russia is extraordinarily unlikely for several reasons:
Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD): A nuclear strike on Russia would almost certainly provoke a devastating retaliatory strike, leading to catastrophic loss of life globally.
Global Condemnation: Using nuclear weapons would isolate the U.S. diplomatically, destroy alliances, and erode its moral standing on the global stage.
Checks and Balances: While the president holds nuclear authority, the decision process involves multiple layers of consultation with military and national security officials. A preemptive or aggressive strike on a nuclear-armed state like Russia would face significant resistance and nuke-retaliation.
Trump’s Approach: Trump has historically avoided direct military confrontations, often advocating for strategic deals over force. His administration would likely pursue diplomatic or economic measures before considering any military options, let alone nuclear strikes.
Trump’s reputation as a negotiator might offer a chance to de-escalate tensions with Russia, though the success of such efforts would depend on balancing power dynamics and upholding international principles. Nuking Russia, however, is not a viable or realistic solution, given the catastrophic consequences it would entail. Diplomacy, coupled with calculated pressure, remains the most plausible path to peace.
How Far Could This War Go?
The trajectory of this conflict depends on several factors:
Western Commitment: Continued support from the U.S. and NATO is crucial for Ukraine. If this falters, Russia could gain ground and most regions in Ukraine could soon be the Russian territory.
Russia’s Response: If Russia feels existentially threatened (e.g., by attacks on its territory), it might escalate to unconventional weapons, including nuclear threats. If it deems it fits, Russia could nuke Ukraine if that is the last option Russia could take. Russia does not have fear to nuke Ukraine and anyone who comes in the way.
Third-Party Interventions: The involvement of countries like North Korea, Iran, and potentially China could transform the war into a global conflict.
A prolonged war could stretch resources, deepen humanitarian crises, and destabilize global markets.
Possible Countries Aligning with Russia
Countries that might align with Russia include:
North Korea: Already providing weapons and personnel, North Korea is deepening its ties with Russia in defiance of the so-called international norms. The North is hungry to detonate and Rocket Man (in Trump’s voice) is ready and willing to destroy.
Iran: With ongoing tensions with the U.S., Iran has supported Russia with drones and could strengthen its military ties further.
China: While cautious, China remains aligned with Russia economically and politically, viewing the U.S. and NATO as strategic adversaries.
Countries like Belarus, Syria, and possibly some in Africa (with close ties to Wagner and Russian investments) may also side with Russia.
However, many nations are likely to remain non-aligned to avoid jeopardizing their own security and economic interests.
Conclusion
The war in Ukraine risks becoming a larger, more dangerous conflict if diplomatic solutions are not pursued. While this poses challenges for the Biden Administration, it also puts global peace and security at stake. A protracted war would test alliances, strain economies, and potentially reshape the global order, with significant consequences for all involved nations.
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