By: Harrison Mwirigi Ikunda
Worth Noting:
- So how the next leader deals with this is something to wait and see. These problems did not begin with Uhuru Kenyatta’s regime. I expected changes during his regime in terms of improving in tackling these problems.
- Some efforts done but the challenges remain. So precisely the next regime will face same mountains of problems we have been grappling with. So the economy and overcoming its many challenges and factors bedeviling it will be a very big headache for the next president.
- If you add our debt (borrowing) challenges and the need for developing the country to cater for our many needs, it will not be easy for the leader.
I do not want to predict who will be the next president of Kenya after Uhuru Kenyatta at this stage. We have slightly above five (5) months to go to the next general election if current timelines stick. This is a long time in politics. Far too long to be able to make anything near accurate prediction.
There are sufficient indicators on the top candidates who one of them would likely end up being the President after the Presidential election (part of the general elections) is held. What I can with a high degree of precision predict is what awaits the next leader and his/her government. It will be a mountain of challenges to deal with. To start with key ones which are very glaring is unemployment which is at alarming high level, corruption at all levels which inhibits the development of the country and threatens to tear it apart and obviously tribalism among others. It will be a tough call for a leader but no challenge is insurmountable where there is a will.
If you zero in to a problem like unemployment, it is a big mess for this nation as it is for any other on earth experiencing such. In Kenya as is in many developing nations, it is closely intertwined with corruption.
Corruption inhibits the requisite progress politically and economically needed in a country. Still tribalism is one key factor that fuels a lot of misallocation and wrong placement of people especially in critical positions of influence in Kenya. Tribalism is a problem in Kenya’s politics, in employment and in many matters of the nation fabric.
So how the next leader deals with this is something to wait and see. These problems did not begin with Uhuru Kenyatta’s regime. I expected changes during his regime in terms of improving in tackling these problems. Some efforts done but the challenges remain. So precisely the next regime will face same mountains of problems we have been grappling with. So the economy and overcoming its many challenges and factors bedeviling it will be a very big headache for the next president. If you add our debt (borrowing) challenges and the need for developing the country to cater for our many needs, it will not be easy for the leader.
If you add these obviously well known problems to Kenya’s inadequate economic growth over the years and the fact that industrialisation which is very necessary for the country to progress ,has been rather too slow, it means even the next leader will still struggle to get us anywhere we desire especially economically.
From the surveys I involved with some organisations have done, a large portion of Kenya’s population expect something not sort of magic or miracle to turn around the economic fortunes of the country. So with the campaign season and mood which are on, expect a lot from political positioning key in mind being the economy. The populist sloganeering on empowering people through ‘Hustler Politics’ and all the other alternatives are unlikely to dent or stop the economic maladies that breed so many of these problems bedeviling us not at least in the short term. If you look at the population growth and weigh it against economic development over time up to now, we are at risk of growing to be a big slum economy overtime that will be encumbered by challenges like crime, relative significant risks of terrorism and such related evils.
With corruption strangling the country and not easy to stop it, plus our propensity for tribalism, potentially we are at a risk of unstable country politically in the near future. Poor people pose a huge risk in terms of political stability of a nation. At the same time people suffering economically or poor people generally, the many and as many as they are, get attracted to a lot of political mischief, chicanery, populism and potential to make even very or extremely wrong decisions.
What they want to hear is a promise to turn their economic fortunes whether it is lies or not. So key to ensure stability of a country in long term is to fight and eliminate poverty. Since majority of our population are struggling economically expect gullibility to influence their political choices.
If you look at unemployment keenly, it is not only in getting decent jobs where the problem is, but the survival of most people is hinged on survival for the fittest kind of labour in Kenya. Many try to hike a living from informal jobs and micro enterprises. Many of the micro enterprises in Kenya do not see the third year of survival. At the fifth year the attrition rate is quite high. This is linked to economic failure and lack of supportive structures and low demand relatively.
Business failures coupled with lack in significant growth of decent jobs and growth in poverty means we are headed for a troubled nation in near future unless we reverse the trends. At any rate if you imagine the level in population the country will be post 2050s and with growing such challenges that we already have, it means we are soaring to dangerous levels. So all means possible must be sought to contain this growth in poverty and this requires diversity of measures. We need a strongly diversified economy with growing sectors and industries whilst containing evils like corruption and tribalism.
This also includes diversity to Diaspora economy which is proving to a vital and significant component of Kenya’s economy. So the next regime would be well advised to develop the Diaspora group in totality and have policies and laws that support it. The Diaspora group is diversified in locations, skills, investments and what have you and it is a crucial component to get Kenya out of current economies morass. It will require enabling and facilitating structures and systems that enable Diaspora undertakings as well as developing it plus get it to invest heavily or significantly to support the Kenyan economy.
At the stage we are in this is an extremely crucial undertaking. At any rate the 2010 constitution was quite progressive to enable dual citizenship and this was something that has enabled the group to grow. So next steps is facilitative attitude and actions from the government to enable them to contribute to the development of the country in a big way.
For the next President, you have a lot on your plate and it may mean few hours of sleep in total each week. Inevitably you will have a lot of confrontations with all manner of resistance to deal with. Yet still you have a lot to pursue if you have to turn the fortunes of the country around. It is doable, nonetheless.
Harrison Mwirigi Ikunda
The Writer is a Political, Economic and Social Analyst and Commentator, the Leader of a Leading Renewable Energy Organisation in Africa, Researcher, Consultant, and also represents Several Other Organisations in various capacities including being the Chief Executive Officer of one of the leading Auto Industry Associations in Kenya.
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